[여론조사] Both Lee and Yoon were unable to fully absorb the ‘friendship force’.

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Let’s analyze the Daeseon board, which is still in the fog, this time through three key indicators that SBS is tracking. Let’s take a look at the public opinion trends for regime re-creation versus replacement, along with the support ratings we saw earlier, as well as support for the president’s state affairs and political parties.

For more details, please tell reporter Koh Ji-hyun.

Let’s take a look at the flow of opinion polls conducted six times from the beginning of November last year, when the presidential election system began in earnest, to this survey.

The rise in support for the presidential candidate and Yoon Seok-yeol is notable.

The survey in mid-January and this survey rose twice in a row, and during the same period, the candidate Lee Jae-myung graph declined slightly twice.

In last year’s year-end survey, Candidate Lee was out of the margin of error by 8.9 percentage points, but after about a month, Candidate Yoon was within the margin of error, but in nominal terms, it turned into a situation where it appeared slightly higher by 4.4 percentage points.


Candidate Sang-Jeong Shim continues to stay in the 2% range and Cheol-Soo Ahn’s support for Candidate Ahn Cheol-Soo, who has been trending upward since the end of November, can be seen in this survey.

The black graph, the floating layer, has been fixed below 20% for two consecutive times.

So, let’s take a look at the three key indicator trends to see what is behind these changes in public opinion.

The first is public opinion about government re-creation versus replacement.

Koh Ji-hyun 8PT CG 2
The trend from mid-December has continued this time as public opinion for regime re-creation in favor of the passport candidate has slightly decreased, while the public opinion for regime change in favor of the opposition candidate has risen slightly.

The gap between the two was 18.6 percentage points, returning to the level in early November last year when the People’s Power primary was over.

The following is the state support map of President Moon Jae-in.

Koh Ji-hyun 8PT CG 3
The positive response that they are doing well is in the early 40s and early 50s, saying they are doing well, and the trend since mid-December is continuing.

Finally, party support.

Koh Ji-hyun 8PT CG 4
Both the Democratic Party and the People’s Power fell twice in a row, but this time they rose by 2.4 percentage points equally for both parties.

It seems that the Democratic Party completed its integration with the Open Democratic Party and the people’s power also increased as the supporters gathered together with Rep. Hong Jun-pyo joining the predecessor, etc.

The Justice Party won 2.7 percent, while the People’s Party won 4.3 percent.

In this survey, Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating was 30.6%.

It is lower than the party’s approval rating of 32.1%, and it also falls short of the 36% level of support for government re-creation and the low 40% level of support for the president’s state affairs.

Analysts say that Lee is not fully absorbing the party and the supporters of President Moon.

Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon is showing support that has exceeded the approval rating of the party for two consecutive times, but it is also evaluated that it does not capture all the opinions of a regime change, which is close to 55%.

A one-month battle began with the question of how much more supporters and friendly forces could be drawn to the voting booths for both Lee and Yoon.

(Video coverage: Kim Heung-gi, Video editing: Jeong Seong-hoon, CG: Lee Yeon-hee)

Investigation request: SBS

Research Agency: Next Research

Survey Date: February 5-6, 2022

Survey target: 1,4 men and women over 18 years of age nationwide (extracting wired RDDs and wireless virtual numbers after assigning gender, age, and region)

Survey method: Wired/wireless telephone interview survey (wireless 87%, landline 13%)

Response rate: 23.3% (1,04 surveys succeeded by contacting 4,305 people)

Weighting method: weighted by gender, age, and region (cell weighted/based on the resident registration population of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security at the end of January 2022)

Sample error: ±3.1%p (95% confidence level)

▶ View poll statistics

▶ [여론조사] Lee Jae-myung 30.6% vs Yoon Seok-yeol 35.0%… ‘Close-up’ within the margin of error

Reference-news.sbs.co.kr

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