As interest rates rise, the real estate market is also expected to have an impact. These days, it is not easy to borrow money from a bank, and there are many predictions that if the interest rate rises, the number of people who want to borrow money to buy butlers will decrease.
Reporter Jo Ki-ho delivers the real estate market outlook.
The rate of increase in apartment prices in Seoul this week was 0.11%, the fifth consecutive week of decline, and the rate of increase in apartment prices nationwide and in the metropolitan area also fell by 0.3 percentage points from the previous week.
The Seoul apartment sales and demand index fell below 100 for the first time in 7 months since April, with more people wanting to sell than those who want to buy.
This is due to the effect of loan regulations, but with the increase in the base rate, it is highly likely that the interest rate on home mortgage loans next year will exceed 5% of the variable type and 6% of the fixed type.
As the interest burden increases due to loan regulations and interest rate hikes, purchasing sentiment is expected to shrink further.
[박원갑/국민은행 부동산 수석위원 : 대출 규제에 보유세 부담이 늘어나고 기준금리까지 올라서 수요 자체가 급격하게 둔화될 가능성이 있고요.]
On the other hand, there is a forecast that the impact will be limited as the raised key interest rate is still far below the 1.75% level in 2019, which was before the Corona 19.
[심교언/건국대 부동산학 교수 : (집값이) 조금씩 오르거나 약간 하락하거나 시장의 움직임이 나타날 거예요. 이것들은 금리의 영향이 아니고 너무 많이 올랐다는 고점 부담에 대한 인식이라든가…]
If the US’s tapering ends next year, interest rate hikes, and the Bank of Korea’s further rate hikes continue, the correction phase could be accelerated along with the liquidity that has been loosened in the market.
In addition, in January and July of next year, the total debt repayment ratio and DSR regulation by borrower will also be strengthened step by step, which will further tighten the demand for houses.
However, ahead of the presidential election, the prevailing view is that the government will maintain a wait-and-see attitude until about June, when a large frame of real estate policy will be presented.
(Video editing: Park Soo-sun)